Palin was the Wrong Choice

on 9/24/08


If you don't like Electoral College projections and Electorate math than just skip this post.


Historically, Presidential nominees pick a running mate that will help deliver a state that they might not get otherwise. I think McCain missed a big chance at winning this election by picking Sarah Palin. She is an interesting character and has certainly energized the GOP supporters, but she won't deliver a state to McCain. Alaska votes Republican. No Democratic candidate has gotten more than 35% of the vote in any of the past 4 elections. Alaska is Red, period.

So, who should McCain have picked?

Rudy Giuliani.

Rudy is certainly not going to energize the conservative base the way Palin has, but those supporters will vote Republican no matter who McCain picked. Rudy leans left on certain issues (abortion, immigration) much like McCain (on other issues...). That gives McCain/Rudy a big edge in gaining undecided voters over McCain/Palin.

Additionally, and most importantly, Rudy is a superstar in New York. I'm not positive he could convince NY state to vote red in November. But, he at least would make it interesting.

New York has 31 electoral votes. 3rd most in the country. When Obama gets those 31 electoral votes, it will put him over the top and he will be the 44th president.

Even if you give every other state that is currently considered a swing state (Ohio, Virginia, and Florida) to McCain, without NY he can't win.

If you want to play with electoral college outcomes, you can make your own map at this site: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1

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